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I don't think too many things will be free-not in this money-hungry world. The times are changing, though.
I don't share your worries, nor do I see your vision of Sci-Fi. I think both will stay/develop.
POD is getting cheaper and easily available for everyone who thinks he/she's got a story to publish (bloggers and non-bloggers), I've done my business novel with POD and it didn' cost me that much.
So there will be more competition among 'real hardcopy publications, but on the same time PC or screen reading will become more popular, especially when simple 'reading'tools are getting cheaper also.
But....
can you scurl-up in your favourite chair with your favourite story on a digital reader? I couldn't.
Can you give a disk containing a story for a digital reader as a present to someone, I wouldn't do that, it has no 'body' (plus you can't write a special message in the book for the receiver from the giver)
Just my 2p on this.
Isn't it true that precious few authors, who have books published, can make a living off their work? I wonder what percentage can, and what markets are the best for this.
"I’m just over 50 so my words here probably shouldn’t count."
makes me feel soooo old (and I'm just 45).
You're as young or as old as you feel/do/act and besides that, for months now my 'greatest' fan is an 60 year old accountant who loves reading adn writing (still have to persuade him to start a blog, his wise words would find a large following straight away).
Everybody counts, age doesn't!
This is just my opinion; but, I have a feeling your florist-phenomena is correct - for certain sectors. Whether traditional publishing will survive or not, I don't know. I guess it depends on adaptability - for example, newspapers, someone wrote a book about them and how they're slowly disappearing called The Vanishing Newspaper.
All these things are happening now, and it's really interesting to be here when it does - even though I'm not really abreast on everything that is going on. I suppose it's a matter that relies on both parties - a supplier's adaptability and knowledge about being online, the power of interactive online communities/blogs and the ability to take full advantage of it - and a customer's sentimentality toward physical things. When it comes to music, I'm always going to choose a CD with a cool little booklet that I can look through as opposed to buying little information packets of music floating around online.
On the subject, I'm more worried about the social effects of all this technology. It's great having everything you need streaming out of your computer, but I think our ability to interact face to face with people is slowly being compromised and neatly boxed away in a room, on a chair, and in front of a lap top.
Folksonomy and user generated content is counter-intuitive, but so many people want to be heard that they shout their barbaric yawps from the rooftop of the world with no direct expectation of payment.
I agree with you completely. I'd rather not give my work away for free. But I also suspect the interet is so big there will always be some people willing to give their content away. And at least a few of those people will have good content.
On the other hand, the Sony Reader is something you can curl up with. I wouldn't, but eventually I suspect people will be comfortable with the idea.
I've already seen teenagers curling up with a cell phone to read their textmessages.
For now, I can't imagine a process that allows me to take in as much visual information as I can in a physical book. That's why I don't think books will disappear.
However, I already use my Palm to do about 50% of my Bible reading. While I can't flip through whole books as easily, I can search and find with amazing precision.
Perhaps all of this will apply more to nonfiction than fiction.
All of the authors I know have a day job--teaching college usually.
And the fact that you are over fifty just gives you the opportunity to turn your experiences into wisdom! (Which you do on your blog.) I agree with Karin H. that you shouldn't apologize for your age.
It is an important thing to keep in mind in this case though. Neither you nor I grew up with hypertexts or internet or screen reading habits.
I suspect that a lot of our nostalgia for wanting to curl up with books will not be as strong for the kids who grow up with cell phones and ereaders and internet and books. They'll still like books, but not so much that the other ways of reading won't at least compete with the books directly.
And no matter how we are reading, we only have so much time to do it. Any time I spend reading on the computer may be time I don't spend reading a book. (Depending on where all of this falls in comparison to the grocery store florist analogy.)
You wrote, "When it comes to music, I’m always going to choose a CD with a cool little booklet that I can look through as opposed to buying little information packets of music floating around online."
Good point. I always buy physical CDs for exactly that reason. I like the artwork and liner notes. And a lot of musicians (Sufjan Stevens comes to mind) are now making their liner notes a big part of the reason you purchase the CD. In my opinion.
But the internet has definitely hurt the music industry. Not because people purchase music via download. But because people steal music via download.
If/when digital reading comes of age, what will stop people from pirating the new Stephen King book or the new Harry Potter?
As for the fear that technology will isolate us, I share that fear. But I don't blame technology. At its best technology builds relationships where none were before. That's how I can sit in Kerrville, Texas, and have an active friendship with people in Chicago and New York and California and Lubbock...
But gradually, I think digital reading will be more portable. Something like the iPod will come along and revolutionize the way people access books.
The iPod hasn't replaced CD players, but it is certainly eating into their market share. (Anyone purchased a Walkman lately?)
The iReader or Sony Reader or whatever digital reading device emerges will do the same to books. And my question for publishers and writers remains--what are we doing to plan for that day when it comes in the next decade or two?
The hardest thing to change in the buying/selling process is the user behavior. In other words, you can change the packaging, the pricing, even the product but if you're selling something that requires a change in human behavior, it's a difficult sell. If a change is afoot, then it's a telling sign.
I think for many of us that are older than 30 (for the record, I'm a lot older than 30) , there is no substitute for the physical hardcopy book. Old habits are hard to break. However, increasingly I get my news, and a lot of information online. It's become a secondary source for information. I find my behavior changing.
For those who literally grew up in the Internet age - (Bill Gates called the Digital Generation everyone born 1984 and later), the answer may be different. For them, it may online first and physical, printed content second. They've grown up with portable devices - iPods, Nintendo Gameboys, etc... If that's true, it may spell trouble for the traditional publishers.
It'll be interesting to hear what Michael Hyatt has to say
As for the passive construction. I'm not really a stickler about that. Especially in a blog comment. However, passive is generally a weak sentence construction that allows the speaker to hedge.
I think you were intending to hedge a little bit in the way you put your guilt trip on me. So that means the syntax you chose was probably appropriate!
I hedged in saying "I." You know, in admitting that you were not simply missed by the cyberblob. But by a very specific blob of humanity on the East Coast.
As far as stealing and pirating.. I don't know a lot about programs that support BitTorrent or even how to use them (it must be pretty darn easy - but I don't ever plan on trying). But, there's so much controversy around this stuff and the RIAA... I assume there will be some kind of solution in the future? I don't know. That's probably optimistic.
Anyway, if you like Sufjan you might want to check out Beirut, relatively new band.
I'm not sure how else to leave a note that's off topic, so I'm posting it here. I read this on your bio:"If you like what I’m saying here and really think I may be able to help you with your manuscript, I don’t mind taking a look at it and offering some free tips."
I recently got a critique that really hurt and would appreciate your feedback on my writing-I judge you to be a fair guy. I think my email is accessible to you here-if not, swing by my blog and let me know.
Thanks,
Eve
It is an important question, but perhaps not for the obvious reason. Christian publishers will not be competitive in the future, with the myriad devices available, simply because it is not competitive now, at least not in a proactive marketing sense.
Books have been getting increasingly less floor space in Christian bookstores, while bric-a-brac increases. Bookstores do little local advertising, as a rule, and since they are just selling books on consignment anyway, they would rather return them instead of making any serious attempt to sell them.
Books may die, not because they are not beloved, but because the means of distribution has become antiquated. People will migrate to other devices for that reason in my view.
The increase in bric-a-brac is just getting worse. Take CBA's International Christian Trade Show. It used to be primarily a publishing event. Authors would showcase new books. Presses would showcase new authors. Last year more than half of the trade show was what I think of as "Jesus Junk." Smiley Jesus erasers. Stuffed Jesus dolls. Jesus video games. Jesus charm bracelets. A whole lotta Jesus for sale. Most of it cheap.
But that's a tangent. I like what you said about "the means of distribution has become antiquated." I think that is absolutely right.